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☆ Central banks look to have hit peak rates. Here's how markets think they'll come down
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England dramatically hiked rates over the last 18 months in a bid to tame runaway inflation. Reid also highlighted that this is the seventh time this cycle that markets have notably reacted on dovish speculation. "Clearly rates aren't going to keep going up forever, but on the previous 6 occasions we saw hopes for near-term rate cuts dashed every time. In clear, waiting for inflation to reach 2% before cutting rates would be 'overkill,'" Moëc said. However, minutes from last week's meeting reiterated the Monetary Policy Committee's expectations that rates will need to stay higher for longer, with U.K. CPI holding steady at 6.7% in September.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, nonfarm payrolls, DBRS Morningstar, Jim Reid chalked, Reid, we've, Gilles Moëc, Moëc, Christine Lagarde, Yannis Stournaras Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of, Fed, PCE, DBRS, Deutsche Bank, ECB, AXA, National Bank of Greece, of, Bank of England, CPI, BNP Locations: New York City, Bank of England, U.S, Europe

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. Seven of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors climbed, with information technology (.SPLRCT) and consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) leading gains. Other speakers include voting members such as Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook, New York Fed President John Williams and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. A total of 403 companies in the S&P 500 have reported profits to date in the third quarter, with 81.6% surpassing analyst estimates, per LSEG data. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 2.01-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 1.24-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Tesla, Jerome Powell, Lisa Cook, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Jamie Cox, Walt Disney, Erik Carlson, Whitney Wolfe, advancers, Amruta Khandekar, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dish, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Tesla, Reuters, Traders, Federal Reserve, Lisa Cook , New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Harris Financial, Fed, University of, Dow Jones, Dish Network, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Berlin ., Lisa Cook , New

☆ Morning Bid: Rates buzz sustained before Fed loan data
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A street sign for Wall Street is seen in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 8, 2021. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields have fallen about 50bps from October's peaks and the drop last week was the biggest recoil since March. For now, S&P500 futures are pointing to further slight gains on Monday - which if realized on the cash market later would make for the sixth straight gain and the longest daily run since June. Undermined by the retreat in Treasury yields, the dollar (.DXY) slipped back to the lowest since Sept 20. The backdrop of an easier dollar and Treasury yields provides significant relief for emerging markets, with MSCI's emerging market stock index (.MSCIEF) hitting its highest since Sept 20 too.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, underscoring, Janet Yellen, Lisa Cook, Huw Pill, Bernadette Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, U.S, Pacific Rim, South, Ryanair, Europe's, Goodyear Tire &, Aspen, Conterra Energy, Constellation Energy, Diamondback Energy, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, NXP Semiconductors, Bank of England, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Gaza, China, Western, San Francisco, South Korean, Asia, Europe, Telesat

☆ Morning Bid: Rate cut prospects fuel stock rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Nov 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. It's been an upbeat start to the week in Asia as markets cast aside concerns about rate hikes, and go straight to pricing in early cuts. Futures imply an 80% probability the ECB will begin easing as soon as April, and the first BoE rate cut is almost fully priced for August. An outlier here is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) which might well resume hiking on Tuesday after four months of steady policy outcomes. But expectations were already so low that it's the dollar that has all the downside in the disappointment stakes.

Persons: Wayne Cole, It's, BoE, Ueda, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Huw Pill, Lisa Cook, Sam Holmes Organizations: Federal, ECB, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Atlanta, EU, Bank of England, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: Wayne, Asia, South Korea, Europe

☆ Futures edge up on rate cut hopes; Fed speakers awaited
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. Other speakers include voting members such as Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook, New York Fed President John Williams and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. Walt Disney (DIS.N), Instacart (CART.O) and Biogen (BIIB.O) are among major companies reporting earnings this week. 403 companies in the S&P 500 have reported profits to date in the third quarter, with 81.6% surpassing analyst estimates, per LSEG data. ET, Dow e-minis were up 28 points, or 0.08%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 8.5 points, or 0.19%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 41.5 points, or 0.27%.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mohit Kumar, Jerome Powell, Lisa Cook, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Walt Disney, Amruta Khandekar, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Treasury, Jefferies, Federal Reserve, Lisa Cook , New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Tesla, Reuters, University of, Dow e, PDD Holdings, Baidu, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, Lisa Cook , New, Berlin, Beijing

☆ Traders see fading chances of Fed rate hike, bet on earlier rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell answers a question at a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 3 - Traders on Friday moved to price a smaller chance of Federal Reserve interest-rate hike in coming months after a government report showed U.S. employers hired fewer workers last month and the unemployment rate rose, signs tighter policy is slowing growth. The chance of a Fed rate hike by January fell to around 20% after the report, versus about 30% before the report, based on prices of futures contracts that settle to the Fed policy rate. Pricing now reflects a better-than-even chance of a rate hike by May, against earlier expectations for rate cuts to start in June. Editing by Tomasz JanowskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S

Bond yields fell, and traders of contracts tied to the Fed's policy rate now see only a 12% chance of a rate hike by January, down from 30% before the release of the employment report. Rate futures pricing now reflects a better-than-even chance of a Fed rate cut by May of 2024, with several more cuts expected later next year. U.S. central bankers themselves are not even thinking about rate cuts, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week after the Fed kept its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50% range. "Continued upward momentum would be troubling, and hopefully this recent rise levels off as the labor market recovery continues," said Indeed.com's Nick Bunker. Still for now, most of the worries about the labor market appear to be focused on what might, or might not, happen next rather than on the evidence so far.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, nonfarm, Bond, Powell, Thomas Barkin, Barkin, Michael Feroli, Nick Bunker, Sharif, Julie Su, Ann Saphir, Shristi Achar, Tomasz Janowski, Christina Fincher, Paul Simao, Chris Reese Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Labor Department, U.S, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Richmond Fed, CNBC, JPMorgan, Reuters Graphics, Labor, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Markets cheer as Powell finds his balance
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell answers a question at a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque Acquire Licensing RightsNov 2 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. It's been a day for relief rallies in Asia as investors became increasingly confident the next move in U.S. interest rates will be down, not up. While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained the option of another hike, he sounded less than committed to the idea. The dovish mood proved infectious as investors pared back rate risks across much of the developed world.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Wayne Cole, It's, presser, Powell, EURIBOR, Edouard Fernandez, Isabel Schnabel, Philip Lane, Sam Holmes Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Treasury, The Bank of, U.S, Bank of England, Norges Bank, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Wayne, Asia, The Bank of England, China

☆ Fed's Powell says higher rates need to persist to affect Fed policy choices
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell answers a question at a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that market borrowing costs would need to be sustainably higher for that to bear on future central bank monetary policy choices. Tighter financial conditions could bear on Fed actions if they are persistent and it "remains to be seen" if that will be the case. But he did add higher Treasury market yields "are showing through" to real world borrowing costs, Powell said at a press conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Powell, Michael S, Chizu Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S

☆ Premarket stocks: American inequality is rising despite higher wages
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

The median (or mid-point) net worth for households has also increased. And while the median net worth has increased significantly, it’s still under $200,000 — far short of the estimated amount Americans should have in retirement savings. Bud Light sales keep sinkingBud Light continues to drag on Anheuser-Busch InBev’s bottom line in the United States, reports my colleague Jordan Valinsky. In the summer, Bud Light lost its long-held top-selling American beer title to rival Modelo. In an effort to jumpstart sales, Bud Light has been rolling out marketing campaigns and partnerships it thinks will placate fans.

Persons: it’s, ”, “ Consumers, ” Dana Peterson, Bud, Bud Light, Jordan Valinsky, Dylan Mulvaney, Elisabeth Buchwald, Biden, ’ Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Labor Department, Consumer Finances, Governors, Federal Reserve, Conference, Board, “, Conference Board, Wall, Dow, Nasdaq, Bud Light, Anheuser, Busch, InBev, Modelo, Beer Business, NFL, UFC Locations: New York, Black, United States

☆ Fed's Powell says balance sheet rundown will proceed without change for now
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell answers a question at a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that he sees no reason to change the current drawdown of the central bank's still-massive balance sheet. The rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee "is not considering changing the pace of balance sheet runoff. While shrinking Fed holdings may have a small impact on real world borrowing costs, "I think it’s hard to make a case that reserves are even close to scarce at this point." Reuters GraphicsFed officials have said repeatedly that the balance sheet drawdown effort complements rate rises and runs in the background.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Powell, it's, Loretta Mester, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters Graphics Fed, Reuters Graphics, Cleveland Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S

☆ A credit card Christmas: Taking on shopping debt carries more risk this holiday season
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Melissa Repko | In Melissa-Repko | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This holiday season, shoppers who ring up purchases on credit cards will pay more interest if they carry balances from month to month after the Federal Reserve's string of rate hikes. Already, investors and retailers have paid closer attention to credit card payments — and some have cited them as a concern. The company, which has its own branded credit cards, has seen lower revenues from those cards because of costs associated with bad debt and related write-offs. Mitchell said student debt, auto loans and mortgages have all become bigger burdens in a high interest rate environment. For retailer-issued cards, the average interest rate is nearly 30%, a record high, according to data from Bankrate.

Persons: Alexi Rosenfeld, Aditya Bhave, Bhave, Taylor Swift, Wall, Adrian Mitchell, Mitchell, Doug McMillon, Tim Quinlan, Wells, Quinlan Organizations: Getty, Shoppers, Bank of America, Consumers, Walmart, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: New York City, Wells Fargo

☆ The Fed is about to make its next move. Here are 8 quotes from Jerome Powell and other central bankers that point to what comes next.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

After 11 interest rate hikes, Federal Reserve officials appear divided on next steps. Jerome Powell and other central bankers have signaled another rate hike could be on the table. Since the Federal Open Market Committee's September meeting, several central bankers have signaled that interest rates could still go higher. Atlanta Fed President, Raphael Bostic, October 20: "I really do try to keep people focused on what inflation is, still at 3.7%. Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, October 19: "Financial conditions have tightened significantly in recent months, and longer-term bond yields have been an important driving factor in this tightening.

Persons: Jerome Powell, —, CME's, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Lorie Logan, Christopher Waller, Susan Collins Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Federal, Market, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Dallas Fed, Governors, Boston Fed

☆ 3 reasons it could be the right time to buy a home, despite high interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-22 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Despite high prices and mortgage rates, they said homeownership will pay off for many people in the long-run. Many Americans have been left wondering when — if ever — the time will be right for them to enter the housing market. "Many homeowners first bought their home when interest rates were high — the 50-year average rate on a mortgage is 7.8%," he said. Even if cuts to interest rates cause mortgage rates to fall, they're unlikely to return to the near-zero levels they were in 2022. If and when mortgage rates fall, Yun said that some homeowners who have been eager to move — but have been reluctant to give up their low interest rates — will likely decide to sell.

Persons: homeownership, —, Andy Walden, homebuyers, Jerome Powell, Alex Wong, Daryl Fairweather, Redfin's, Lawrence Yun, Yun, Selma Hepp, Connolly, Mott aren’t, David Meyer, Redfin's Fairweather, Fairweather, There's, there's, Jenna Stauffer, Hepp, Meyer Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors, ICE Mortgage Technology, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Reserve, CoreLogic, Brigade, Homeowners, International Realty Locations: Washington , DC

☆ Morning Bid: US growth topping China as megacaps report
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A street sign for Wall Street hangs in front of the New York Stock Exchange May 8, 2013. The combination of high-pressure growth and U.S. crude oil prices back up to their highest in two weeks has re-ignited inflation concerns. And with a 20-year Treasury bond auction also due later in the day, bond markets are back running scared. Two-year Treasury yields hit their highest since 2006 on Tuesday at 5.24% and held most of those gains overnight - while 20-year yields are hovering around 5.2% as well. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, Joe Biden's, megacaps Tesla, Jerome Powell, China's, Republican Jim Jordan, Morgan Stanley, Kinder Morgan, Elevance, Joe Biden, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, Michelle Bowman, John Williams, Patrick Harker, Toby Chopra Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Atlanta, Netflix, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Treasury, Bank of England's, Wall St, Republican, Procter, Gamble, Abbott Laboratories, Northern Trust, Nasdaq, Citizens Financial, US Bancorp, Zions Bancorp, Discover, Lam Research, Alcoa, Steel Dynamics, Federal, New York Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Graphics Retail, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Gaza, Israel, trepidation, United States, Britain, Wall, Stocks, Asia, Europe, Northern, POPG, Equifax

☆ Morning Bid: Banks, Biden visit buoy markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. Biden leaves later on Tuesday for a high stakes visit to Israel and Jordan and Washington said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to let humanitarian aid reach besieged Gazans. That reversed a pre-weekend 'safety bid' that emerged amid fears an Israeli ground invasion into Gaza could draw other regional countries and groups into the war. Before then, bond markets will have to negotiate tomorrow's 20-year Treasury auction. The relatively new 20-year tenor has often proved unpopular and will be watched closely after a poor reception for the latest 30-year bond last week.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Joe Biden's, Biden, Washington, Benjamin Netanyahu, Wells, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, Jerome Powell's, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Lockheed Martin, Johnson, JB Hunt, Michelle Bowman, John Williams, Neel Kashkari, Tom Barkin, Luis de Guindos, Joe Biden, Olaf Scholz Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Federal Reserve, HK, Bank of England, Lockheed, United Airlines, Michelle Bowman , New York Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Richmond Fed, European Central Bank, European Union, Luxembourg Retail, Reuters Graphics Reuters, EIA, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Gaza, Jordan, Israeli, Gazans, Asia, Europe, Wells Fargo, China, Russian, Beijing, Ukraine, United, Canada, Michelle Bowman , New, Frankfurt, Luxembourg, Venezuela

☆ Save like a boomer: Younger generations have a chance to make high interest rates work for them
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Cork Gaines | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Interest rates on traditionally "safer" investments like Treasury bonds are high. Economist Thomas Hogan of the American Institute for Economic Research recently pointed out this upside to the interest rates and how it is helping Americans. "Now, interest rates on US Treasury bonds are at the highest in more than a decade, giving savers a safe, stable place to store their money." If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the fed funds rate. However, to the extent that strength in the economy is behind the increase in long-term interest rates, the FOMC may need to do more."

Persons: —, Thomas Hogan, Hogan, Jerome Powell, Kevin Dietsch, Tim Hayes, Lorie Logan, Logan Organizations: Service, Treasury, American Institute for Economic Research, Federal, NDR, U.S, Supreme, Dallas Locations: Israel

☆ Morning Bid: 'Remarkable' US markets surf crosscurrents
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. Stock futures are higher once again ahead of the bell today. As cash Treasury markets returned from Monday's Columbus Day holiday to a week of heavy long-term debt auctions, they were also greeted with rekindled optimism about the Federal Reserve's policy rate trajectory. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields are set to kick off Tuesday's U.S. trading day at some 4.65% - almost a quarter of a percentage point below the peak set just after Friday's blowout September jobs report. Elsewhere, PepsiCo (PEP.O) edged 0.8% higher ahead of the beverage maker's third-quarter results and Unity (U.N) jumped 6.4% after the video-game software maker said its CEO John Riccitiello would retire.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Lorie Logan, Logan, Philip Jefferson chimed, John Riccitiello, Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari, Mary Daly, Raphael Bostic, Ed Osmond Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Columbus, Federal, Dallas Fed, Treasury, Monetary Fund, IMF, World Bank, Fund, HK, Bloomberg, Alibaba, Baidu, PepsiCo, Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Atlanta Fed, PepsiCo NFIB Consumer, Reuters Messaging, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Marrakesh, China, Beijing, Minneapolis, San

REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/ Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Oct 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve's top regulatory official defended a sweeping proposal to overhaul bank capital rules before the country's largest bank lobby on Monday, arguing the benefits of a bigger cushion outweigh any additional costs banks might face. The proposal implements international capital standards agreed by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in the aftermath of the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Barr's Monday speech, which is his first on bank regulation since the proposal came out, served as a broad-based defense of the effort. "The private costs of capital must be weighed against the social benefits of higher capital in creating a healthier, more resilient financial system," he said, according to prepared remarks. Barr also pushed back against the industry's refrain that higher capital costs for banks will mean curtailed lending and potential economic harm.

Persons: Michael Barr, Kevin Lamarque, Michael Barr's, Barr, Jerome Powell, Powell, Isaac Boltansky, Pete Schroeder, Michelle Price, Josie Kao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Financial, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Capitol, REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Federal, Banking, Silicon Valley Bank, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Silicon

☆ Morning Bid: Oil soothes but jobs dictate
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. crude oil has recoiled almost 9% this week and prices have lost almost 14% peak-to-trough since last Thursday's high above $95 per barrel. The year-on-year oil price is now falling again and tracking losses of 5%. Copper prices fell to their lowest of the year on Thursday and core commodity indexes are back at August levels. All of which sees U.S. bond yields retain an uneasy calm into the jobs numbers. Implied rates from Fed futures markets pulled back the chances of another hike in the cycle to less than 50%.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Mike Dolan, Mary Daly, Kevin McCarthy, Donald Trump, Jim Jordan, Janet Yellen's, Christopher Waller, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, ADP, San Francisco Fed, Treasury, St, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Tesla, Exxon Mobil, Natural Resources, Federal Reserve, Challenger, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Morocco, Canada

☆ Why borrowing costs for nearly everything are surging, and what it means for you
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Hugh Son | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

At the center of the storm is the 10-year Treasury yield , one of the most influential numbers in finance. The relentless rise in borrowing costs has blown past forecasters' predictions and has Wall Street casting about for explanations. Companies that can only issue debt in the high-yield market, which includes many retail employers, will confront sharply higher borrowing costs. Higher rates squeeze the housing industry and push commercial real estate closer to default. "So if banks haven't fixed their issues since then, the problem is only worse, because rates are only higher."

Persons: Jerome Powell, SAUL LOEB, Bob Michele, Ben Emons, Treasurys, Benjamin Dunn, Lindsay Rosner, Peter Boockvar, Rosner Organizations: Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Getty, ., Treasury, Fed, JPMorgan, NewEdge, Bloomberg, Alpha Theory Advisors, Goldman, Companies, Bleakley Financial, Valley Bank, First Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Goldman Sachs, First Republic

☆ Morning Bid: Bond steamroller flattens all
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. That's all on top of the ongoing rethink of the Fed's long-term rate horizon and increasingly high-pressure economy. Hit from all sides, the Treasury market is simply in ructions - catalysed perhaps by technical, speculative and positioning factors too. Ten-year yields hit a whopping 4.88% early on Wednesday - an increase of 80 basis points in little over a month. And implied volatility in the bond market (.MOVE) hit its highest since May.

Persons: Florence Lo, Mike Dolan, Kevin McCarthy, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Jeffrey Schmid, St, Louis Fed, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, Mehmet Simsek, Bernadette Baum Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Congress, riven, Federal Reserve, Bank of, Treasury, Nasdaq, Reserve Bank of New, P Global, U.S . Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed, Kansas City Fed, Turkish, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Washington, Asia, Europe, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Kansas, London

"It's not going to be a matter of struggling to get the inflation rate higher. While higher interest rates are good news for savers, businesses and consumers have become used to paying nothing for money over the past 15 years. Reuters GraphicsREADING YIELDSA market-based Fed model that breaks down the 10-year Treasury yield into its components provides further insight into investors' thinking. This rise in term premium, which spent much of the last decade below zero, reflects high levels of uncertainty about economic outlook and monetary policy, investors said. While the market appears to be confident in its belief in the end of the era of zero interest rates, it is far less so about the economy's actual likely path.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Greg Whiteley, It's, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Adrian, Crump, Emanuel Moench, John Velis, Leslie Falconio, BNY's Velis, Velis, Paritosh Bansal, Anna Driver 私 Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, York Fed, Minneapolis, Moench, Frankfurt School of Finance, Management, Americas, BNY Mellon, UBS Global Wealth Management, San, San Francisco Fed Locations: Washington ,, U.S, DoubleLine, San Francisco

☆ Stagflation is 'the big bogeyman out there' — and many increasingly fear its return
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Oil prices surging to the brink of $100 per barrel and the specter of higher for longer inflation have renewed concern about stagflation risks, however. Kashkari reaffirmed this message when speaking to CNBC on Wednesday, saying that he was not sure if interest rates have been raised enough to successfully fight price growth. Market participants are worried that surging oil prices could keep inflation higher for longer, amplifying the risk of stagflation. "The price pressure reflects a shortage of supply, after OPEC+ cut production targets, under the leadership of Saudi Arabia and Russia. This must be seen in the context of a moving geopolitical environment, with Saudi Arabia recently joining the BRICS group," they added.

Persons: Mel Lagomasino, CNBC's, Lagomasino, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Jerome Powell, Chip Somodevilla, Stagflation, –, South Africa — Organizations: WE, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Getty, Brent, . West Texas Intermediate, Organization of, Petroleum, OPEC, Generali Investments, United Locations: Minneapolis, Washington ,, Saudi Arabia, Russia, OPEC, stagflation, Brazil, India, China, South Africa, Argentina, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia, United Arab Emirates

☆ Morning Bid: Markets catch breath after bruising recoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

China's markets will also be disrupted by Golden Week holidays next week. Ten-year Treasury yields hit another 16-year high at 4.56% on Tuesday before dialling back a bit on Wednesday, with 10-year real yields hitting 14-year peaks at 2.24%. Risk spreads in junk bond and overseas sovereign bond markets are also creeping higher again, with exchange-traded U.S. junk bond funds hitting their lowest since May and Italy's government bond yield premium over Germany widening too. Worrying for many investors this week has been how bond yields have climbed despite weaker economic signals and how stock and bond losses are correlating again. World markets were more mixed, with China's bourses managing some gains ahead of the big holiday week.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell's, Neel Kashkari, shakeout, Shorter, China's bourses, Michelle Bowman, Jane Merriman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Minneapolis Fed, Golden, Nasdaq, Big Tech, U.S . Federal Trade Commission, Costco, China Evergrande, HK, United, Treasury, Micron, Paychex Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, Germany, United States

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